Talk Synopsis
Economic exchange between countries has always involved risks and, since World War II, those risks have been managed under the US-led rules-based multilateral order for those countries that signed up to the system. The globalisation that flourished as a result brought prosperity and peace, with no region benefitting as much as did East Asia. That multilateral trading system is now under threat. Great Power rivalry, or strategic competition, as well as outdated multilateral rules and uncertainty from other global shocks and protectionism have led to an increase in the risks from economic exchange that threaten the benefits. The weaponization of economics has caused many to see economic interdependence as a vulnerability instead of a source of prosperity and security. Economics and security can be complements, as they have been in East Asia, or be seen as substitutes, requiring hard trade-offs. The weaponisation of economics is leading to a vicious cycle of high trade shares being seen as a source of vulnerability, leading nations to try to reduce interdependence and intensifying insecurity. How might the economic order be mended to help make countries more secure and better off economically?
Speaker’s Profile
Shiro Armstrong is Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy in the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University. He is Director of the Australia-Japan Research Centre, Editor of the East Asia Forum, and Director of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. He is also a Visiting Professor at Keio University, Research Associate at the Center on Japanese Economy and Business at the Columbia Business School, Visiting Lecturer at the University of Tokyo, Non-resident Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan and Research Associate at the New Zealand APEC Study Centre. He is the Australian representative on the Research Institute Network of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, ERIA.