Talk Synopsis
The Chinese economy has not had the widely expected rebound since pandemic restrictions were lifted in late 2022. High debt levels, falling property prices, excess capacity in many industries, falling foreign direct investment, and tepid consumption growth have all contributed to a weak recovery and stubborn deflationary pressures. Commentators predict that the Chinese economy has peaked, and that it is now undergoing ‘Japanification’ – a reference to Japan’s lost decades marked by a prolonged period of sluggish growth and debt deflation. In response, the Chinese government has launched an ambitious plan – emphasising the technologies and industries of the future – to invest in ‘new quality productive forces’, increase productivity, and ensure technology self-sufficiency in the face of growing trade tensions. Amid the slowdown at home, Chinese firms are investing heavily in the rest of world, especially in other developing countries. What are the causes of China’s post-Covid slowdown? Is the slowdown structural or cyclical? And what are its likely impacts on the rest of Asia and the world?
Speaker’s Profile
Donald Low is Senior Lecturer and Professor of Practice in Public Policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST). He was the editor of Behavioural Economics and Policy Design: Examples from Singapore(2011), the lead author of Hard Choices: Challenging the Singapore Consensus (2015), and co-author of PAP v PAP: The Party’s Struggle to Adapt to a Changing Singapore (2020). His latest book is The Price of Zero: China’s Policy Missteps During and After Covid (2024), which examines the causes and economic consequences of the zero-Covid policy that the Chinese authorities pursued for much of the pandemic. He argues that initial success with Covid suppression bred hubris, utopian thinking, and overconfidence, leading to a series of crackdowns on industries that, until recently, were key sources of China’s growth. The Price of Zero will be available for sale at this talk at MYR 50.